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Property tip #5: Property Market walks into a bar...

NZ's property market walks into a bar. Bartender says; "Hey, what's got you down?"


Yes, the market is in a downturn.

Yes, it was expected, predictable, and even necessary.

Yes, it will recover.

Yes, there will be another boom.

Yes, there will be another downturn after that.

Yes, when that downturn comes we will see the same headlines and hear the same messages from the doomsday commentators that 'this time is different'. Like the headlines from this downturn. And the last one. And the one before that. They pretty much just change the date on them.

The problem is recency bias. When markets are rising, people think they will rise forever. And when they're falling, people think they'll fall forever.

Neither is true and the problem is these belief systems (BS's) can cause paralysis and cost a lot of opportunity.

Downturns can be scary and create a lot of uncertainty, especially if you haven't been through them before. We know the value of being counter-cyclical, but it can be really hard to swim against the tide.

The best thing to do (aside from ignore the media) is become your own expert commentator. Become a market expert. Study the cycles to realise they are a normal part of it all. Hang around people on the same wave-length, but not echo-chambers as they are equally dangerous.

If you have a plan which includes sound risk-management as well as growth components you are way ahead of most people. If you don't have this, maybe it's time?

And remember, don't take property advice from someone you wouldn't exchange places with. Like reporters.




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